Conserving old growth forests is key to stabilising the Earth’s climate

From the Blog of the Club of Rome




© Greatandaman | Dreamstime
By Ugo Bardi, member of The Club of Rome


02 May 2023 – Do forests create rain? It is a question that has been debated for a long time. We know that trees produce huge amounts of water vapor that is pumped from humidity in the ground and condensed into clouds that generate rain, but the mechanisms that govern condensation and vapor water movements are still not completely clear.

In our new paper, a group of researchers led by Anastassia Makarieva of the Theoretical Physics Division of Petersburg Nuclear Physics Institute (PNPI) and the Institute for Advanced Study of the Technical University of München (TUM) highlight how evapotranspiration – the evaporation of water by trees, modifies water vapor dynamics to generate high moisture content regimes that provide the rain needed by land ecosystems. The research is a significant step forward in understanding the critical need to conserve old-growth forests to stabilise the Earth’s climate and maintain the biodiversity needed for the ecosystem to survive.

The study titled “The role of ecosystem transpiration in creating alternate moisture regimes by influencing atmospheric moisture convergence” shows that two potential moisture regimes exist: one is drier, with additional moisture decreasing atmospheric moisture import, and one is wetter, with additional moisture enhancing atmospheric moisture import. In the drier regime, that may be caused by deforestation, water vapor behaves as a passive tracer following the air flow. In the wetter regime, it modifies atmospheric dynamics and amplifies the atmospheric moisture import, creating rain.

There is still much that we need to understand about these mechanisms, but we are starting to understand how forests and the atmosphere form a system of connected elements that affect each other. One thing is clear: forests are crucial to the stability of the Earth’s climate.

Not only do trees store carbon in a form that does not cause greenhouse warming, but they actively cool the planet, due to how moisture condensation is managed. Forests also control the water cycle on land, pumping water vapor from the oceans inland by a mechanism called the biotic pump. Old growth forests generate giant flows of water known as “flying rivers” that fertilise entire continents. Our study shows that the non-linear precipitation dependence on atmospheric moisture content has wide-ranging implications. Atmospheric water flows do not recognize international borders, meaning deforestation disrupting evapotranspiration in one region could trigger a transition to a drier regime in another.

Our results indicate that the Earth’s natural forests, in both high and low latitudes, are our common legacy of pivotal global importance, as they support the terrestrial water cycle. Their preservation should be a recognised priority for our civilisation to solve the global water crisis. Important on-going work calls for re-appraisal of the forest’s role in the global temperature regime.

The study was performed by an international research team that included scientists from North and South America, and Eastern and Western Europe.

Forests and History: A Tale of the Great Earth Holobiont

 

France seems to be the only area of the world for which "Our World in Data" has a complete dataset for forest cover for a long timespan -- it goes back to the year 1000 AD. Similar but less extensive data are available for a few other countries but, in most cases, the data cover only the past 30 years. 

I can't say how reliable these data are, but the curve for France makes a lot of sense if compared with the historical record. Note how the late Medieval expansion corresponds to a decline in forest cover. The crusades (1095 -1291) see deforestation continue. Then, the whole economic system collapses: the crusaders go back to Europe to find the land devastated first by famines, and then by the Black Death. It is said that some 30% of the European population disappeared. Forests, then, had a chance to recover and attain levels similar to those of the early Medieval period. 

Then, with the discovery of the New World, another cycle of expansion started. Population boomed, but the economic prosperity had to be paid, and in part was fueled, by another cycle of deforestation. It ended in mid 19th century with the start of a coal-based, industrial economy. Coal provided the same services as wood but at a lower cost, and that allowed the population to continue increasing without having to deforest the land. The trend continued with another cycle that started during the 20th century: the oil-based economy. The population rapidly shot upward, but deforestation didn't restart. 

In the 21st century, we see the trend continuing, at least in rich countries such as Europe. Forests are still growing, while the population has now plateaued, and it is starting to decline. Globally, deforestation is continuing, but the reversal is clear in several countries (source)

So, there may be ground for optimism: forests may be regrowing as the world goes through its demographic transition. It is an especially welcome trend, now that the link between forest cover and rainfall is being recognized (see a recent paper in Nature). 

But don't forget that the destruction of forests is always around the corner. During the Middle Ages, France had little more than ten million inhabitants, and yet it could raze its forests to the point of destroying its economy and causing some of the greatest famines in European history. We have been able to avoid this destiny, today, only because we have cheap energy from fossil fuels. Now that the fossil supply is dwindling, and with climate change looming as an even worse threat, we could see a new assault on forests, this time with the green label of "sustainable biofuels." 

We need to understand that we need forests not because we can use wood to power our SUVs, but because they are part of the great planetary holobiont that connects everything to everything else. They generate the "biotic pump" mechanism that brings rain to the land (see this recent paper by Makarieva et al.). If we lose the forests, we lose rain. And if we lose rain, we lose everything.  

 

Flying Rivers, the Biotic pump, and the Consequences of Deforestation

A talk given a few years ago by Anastassia Makarieva where she focuses on the concept of "biotic pump" a fundamental concept of the biotic regulation of the ecosphere, part of the general concept of "Planetary Holobiont." She will update her results in a Webinar to be held on Jan 2nd, 2023. You can register at

https://tum-conf.zoom.us/webinar/register/5016722254879/WN_tDztF8fJSrGWOJLaYv5B2Q