What is the maximum temperature that the Earth's Holobiont (aka "Gaia") can withstand before collapsing? Some data from a recent paper in "Science" indicate that we are not so close to the "Venus scenario" that would sterilize our planet. Nevertheless, the system is under stress
As you see in the figure at the beginning of the post, the optimal average temperature of planet Earth for the standard C3 photosynthesis (that of trees) is around 16 C, not far from the current value of around 18 C. (note that the graph takes into account not just temperature, but CO2 concentrations, supposed to be affecting temperature). Switching to the C4 mechanism (grass and others) moves the maximum to about 28 C; 10 degrees higher than it is now.
So,
we have a comfortable range in terms of plant life, and consider that
the "zero" in the curve doesn't mean that all plants die; just that they
are less efficient, especially in the hot equatorial zones. Note also
how the "respiration" curve keeps growing as a function of temperatures;
in the paper, they say that it keeps growing up to 60-70 C.
Complicated story, but in any case, Gaia is not going to die soon. Note that during the Eocene, some 56 million years ago, the Earth's temperature was indeed some 8-10 degrees higher than it is now, and the planet was covered with lush forests. It is believed that C4 photosynthesis didn't appear on Earth before 35 million years ago. So, even an extra 10 C of warming will not destroy the biosphere: Gaia has a thick skin.
Eventually, the increasing solar irradiation will kill the Great Earth Holobiont but, hopefully, that will take a few hundred million years (at least). About humans, though.... well, it is another story. Do we still have a few decades left? Maybe.
Complicated story, but in any case, Gaia is not going to die soon. Note that during the Eocene, some 56 million years ago, the Earth's temperature was indeed some 8-10 degrees higher than it is now, and the planet was covered with lush forests. It is believed that C4 photosynthesis didn't appear on Earth before 35 million years ago. So, even an extra 10 C of warming will not destroy the biosphere: Gaia has a thick skin.
Eventually, the increasing solar irradiation will kill the Great Earth Holobiont but, hopefully, that will take a few hundred million years (at least). About humans, though.... well, it is another story. Do we still have a few decades left? Maybe.
