How is the Great Holobiont Doing? Alive, but not so Well

 

This is a translation of a recent article I published in an Italian newspaper, "Il Fatto Quotidiano." It refers to the Italian situation, but I think it can be interesting for an international readership. Note how I tried to explain the situation in simple terms, remaining within very strict length limits. The article turned out to be popular, but, as usual, I received my daily dose of insults in the comments. It is like this -- people have an inner rage that they need to unleash in one way or another. I can understand them, but I wish they would find a better outlet for their sacrosanct rage.  Above, an image from the recent floods in Emilia Romagna in Italy, mentioned in the article as the cause of a quarrel between believers and unbelievers.

From "Il Fatto Quotidiano

Climate Change: Where do we stand?

By Ugo Bardi June 05, 2023

The environment and climate are not often mentioned in the media, apart from particular moments such as in the case of the controversy that followed the flooding in Emilia-Romagna. However, on longer time scales, we see that concern about climate change is gradually spreading. The latest Eurobarometer data (you can find them at this link) show that 12 percent of Europeans put climate change among their top concerns, with Italy exactly in the middle. This is not so small as it sounds: 10 years ago, only 6 percent of Europeans gave this answer, and in Italy, 4 percent. Even compared to pre-covid times (now remote), this year we gained a couple of "worry points."

The reaction to the perception of a serious problem can be simply to deny that it exists, but it may also be to exaggerate it. This was the case with the flooding in Emilia-Romagna where it was obvious to some that climate change was to blame while, for others, it was all the fault of the Greens, or perhaps the river rodents called "nutria." More generally, it seems clear that the rise in the number of worried people is going in parallel with that of the number of skeptics. The latter are very active in the discussion, albeit at a rather superficial level, with various accusations of conspiracies of the strong powers and reasoning about things like the Alps with no ice in the Middle Ages, and why don't you consider the effect of the sun, and then today it is raining, so what? On the other side, the reaction is not so much better. "The IPCC says so, hence it's true," or, worse, in Italy there came the proposal to ban by law "climate denialism." 

But instead of launching into talk of conspiracies or invoking censorship, shouldn't we try to better understand what we are talking about? Climate science was not invented by the WEF in cahoots with the Lizard People. And climate models are quite a different matter compared to the two hand-drawn curves that were used as an excuse to lock us at home at the time of the pandemic. Climate science has more than a hundred years of history of studying a difficult and complex subject and is now one of the most active and fruitful fields of study in modern science. It has given us a grand and fascinating picture of the behavior of Earth's climate over a time span of hundreds of millions of years and more. It allows us to interpret how the biosphere was able to survive all this time and to understand how phases of climate instability led to the great mass extinctions. That of the dinosaurs, 66 million years ago, was only one of many and not even the largest. 

Nothing about climate science is beyond criticism. In fact, without criticism, there is no progress. So, let us maintain a healthy skepticism, but let us also avoid destructive polemics that serve only to demonize, not to build. If we take the correct attitude, we see that climate change is not something that models predict for the more or less distant future. It is happening here and now: we can see it, and we can measure it. We have reached a CO2 concentration not seen in millions of years before our time, when temperatures were 4-7 degrees higher than today. And the temperature continues to rise. This year, the development of the condition called "El Niño" in the Pacific Ocean is already causing particularly high temperatures, and it could lead to 2023 breaking all historical records. 

The change is already doing us major damage, for example, making Italian cities unlivable in summer unless in conditioned environments. Not to mention the return of mosquitoes, now victorious everywhere. But the worst damage is being done by the tropicalization of the climate, with prolonged periods of drought alternating with periods of heavy rains. That these intense rains played a role in the disaster in Emilia Romagna is at least likely, although rain was certainly not the only factor at play. Add to that the disappearance of snow in the mountains that used to act as a water reservoir in the summer, and you understand the problems that drought brings to agriculture and why there is talk of ongoing desertification for southern Italy, and perhaps not only for the South. 

These problems can only get worse if we continue to behave as we have been doing, which is to ignore the impact of human activities on the ecosphere. CO2 emitted by fossil fuel combustion is probably the main factor causing warming, but others, such as deforestation and loss of biodiversity, have their weight. 

But let's end on a few optimistic notes. The first is that the global transition to renewables is going great. We have passed the $1 trillion per year level of investment in the transition. If we keep it up, we can reasonably hope to get rid of fossil fuels in a reasonable timeframe. Plus, we are seeing some "greening" of the planet, almost certainly caused by the fertilizing effect of CO2 (see this link). So it seems that the goddess Gaia is trying to lend us a hand in avoiding the worst. But we have to work on it, otherwise, the old lady might decide she can't stand us anymore and make us go the way of the dinosaurs.